人民币实际有效汇率波动对外汇储备影响的实证研究:1996～2004

本文首先简单回顾了外汇储备需求函数的研究文献;然后利用我国1996~2004年的月度数据对我国的外汇储备需求函数进行详尽的实证研究,结论表明,消费品零售总额、人民币实际有效汇率指数及其波动性、国内外利率差、进口依存度、进口的波动性均显著影响我国的外汇储备需求;最后本文从汇率水平的调整、汇率浮动区间的扩大、利率市场化以及稳定进口波动性等方面,为缓解我国外汇储备的快速增长提出了相应的政策建议。

A Positive Study on the Effect of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on the International Reserve: 1996～2004

At first, this paper reviews the literatures on the international reserve demand function. Then it makes detailed positive analysis of the international reserve demand function in China. The result indicates that the consumer goods retail amount, the RMB real effective exchange rate index and the RMB REER volatility, the gap of real interest rate between China and U. S. A. , import dependence ratio and the volatility of import have significant effect on the demand for international reserve. Finally, this paper proposes policy suggestion on the rapid growth of international reserve.