中国电信市场的需求关系估计与需求效应分析

本文采用全国31个省市自治区2002～2004年的Panel观测数据,运用两阶段固定效应法,估计了中国电信市场的常弹性需求函数。估计结果显示,电信服务的价格水平、移动电话用户的数量、城镇居民人均可支配收入、互联网接入用户的数量和通信工具的相对价格等5个因素,对中国电信市场的需求具有统计上的显著影响。但从实际需求效应上看,对中国电信市场业务总量增幅的贡献主要来自于电信服务价格水平的大幅度下降,以及移动电话用户数量的急剧增长。估计结果支持,中国电信市场经历了一个市场结构消除垄断、电信业务移动化和消费对象大众化的过程。可以说,正是市场竞争程度的大幅度提升,以及由此触发的国民消费观念的转变,推动了中国电信市场需求的高速增长。

Estimation of Demand Function and Practical Demand Effects in Chinese Telecom munications Market

The constant elasticity demand function was estimated by TS-FE models using panel data from Chinese telecommunications market. The results show that there are statistically significant effects on the demand from the price of telecommunications services, the number of mobile telephone subscribers, the income level of townsfolk, the number of internet subscribers, and, the relative price of communication tools. But of the practical effects on demand, about 70% comes from the decrease of the price of telecommunications services and the increase of the number of mobile telephone subscribers, which demen strates the perception of demonopolization, mobilization and popularization in Chinese telecommunications market in the past decade. It is concluded that just the boost of competitive degree in market converts the behavior of consumers, and then, speeds up the growth of demand in Chinese telecommunications market.