FDI与出口贸易结构关系研究(1978～2005年)——基于DLM与TVP模型的检验

本文分析初级产品、工业制品出口贸易结构及出口贸易方式结构变化,并研究其变化原因,同时借助分布滞后模型及变参数经济计量模型,探讨1978年以来FDI对出口贸易结构变化的影响。研究认为出口贸易存在巨大利润空间与政策空间,并促成外资流入规模逐年扩大;但伴随着外资的流入,出口贸易结构并未优化,需要通过政策措施调整FDI的流入规模与方向,进一步实现贸易结构升级。

Study on the Relationship between Structure of Export Trade and FDI in China

The paper firstly analyzes the change of trade structure of primary product, industrial goods and the structure of trade terms, and then studies on the reasons causing the changes. With the distribution lagging model and TVP model, the paper discusses the effect that foreign direct investment changes over the past since 1978 to export trade structure, The conclusion shows there existing enormous profit space and policy in export trade, helps to bring about foreign capital inflow scale expanding year by year; accompanying by foreign capital inflow, structure of export has not been optimized.