回弹效应加剧了中国能源消耗总量的攀升吗？

基于29个省份1995~2011年能源平衡表核算出各省份生产性能源消耗总量，构建考虑地区经济空间溢出以及能源—经济非线性关系的面板数据半参数空间滞后模型，在测算各省份历年能源产出弹性的基础上对技术进步导致的能源消耗回弹效应进行了估计，考察回弹效应对能源消耗总量攀升的影响。研究发现，中国能源消耗回弹效应具有明显的时空特征，并非所有年份均会出现回弹效应，回弹效应相对集中出现在东部省份，而经济欠发达省份回弹效应难以呈现；大部分省份所出现的回弹效应主要集中在2001年以前；能源消耗总量攀升并非是回弹效应所致，乃是由于技术水平和经济增长质量低下造成的。

Does the Rebound Effect Exacerbate the Increasing of China's Total Energy Consumption?

By using China's 29 provinces' energy balance sheet during 1995~2011,this paper accounts the total productive energy consumption of the 29 provinces in each year,constructs the semi-parametric spatial panel data lag model for considering the spatial spillover effect between the regions' economic growth,estimates the energy consumption rebound effect due to the technology progress on the basis of calculating the energy-output elasticity of over the years in each provinces,examines the influence of rebound effect on the increasing total energy consumption. We find that there exists significant time and spatial varying characteristic in China's energy consumption rebound effect,the rebound effect does not appear in all the period,the rebound effect appears relatively concentrated in the eastern provinces,and less in economic underdeveloped provinces; the rebound effect in most of the provinces is mainly appears concentrated before 2001; the total energy consumption climbing is not caused by the rebound effect,but the low technical level and the poor economic growth quality.