世界连接CGE模型方法、研制与应用

随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展，系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡模型，科学揭示各经济体的运行特征，为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架：一方面在模型的理论框架中，分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征；另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析，检验链接模式和国家间经济联系，以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。

Approach, Development and Application of World Linkage CGE Model

Along with rising of spatial economics and the rapid development of global economic integration, the international and inter-country systematic models employed especially in the fields of inter-country economic linkage have been increasingly showing their great value. The paper constructs a world-Linkage CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium) which reflects the size of economies and differences in structures across countries. Make use of a Macroeconomic SAM (Social accounting Matrix) and inter-country SAM, and to present the recursive dynamic CGE model, to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different policies options. More importantly, based on related empirical research, the model characterizes the main economic relations across countries, such as interregional commodity flow and capital flow, labor flow and capital flow. Finally, some simulations are carried out to reveal the important effect that come from country differences and linkages. The results show the differences and key linkages have significant influences on policy analysis.