结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率

构建了一个结构型时变弹性生产函数，将劳动投入结构、资本投入结构和人力资本结构纳入经济增长分析框架，运用1997-2012的省级面板数据估计了这一时期要素产出弹性的动态特征，并估算出中国潜在经济增长率的变化。研究结果表明：近年来潜在增长率下降，主要由资本存量增速下降所导致，但人力资本结构升级减缓了这一趋势。近10年来实际增长率变化主要是受潜在增长率变化影响，2010年以来的经济增速减缓，是由于潜在增长率下降导致，未来政策重心应当从需求管理过度到供给管理，着力开发经济增长的潜力，保证经济增长的可持续性。

Structure Changes, Elements Output Elasticity and Potential Economic Growth in China

This paper builds a structural time-varying elastic production function, considering the labor structure, capital structure and human capital structure in economic growth. Using provincial panel data in 1997-2012, we estimate the dynamic elements of the output elasticity of this period and the changes in China's economic growth potential. The results show that: the potential growth rate declines in recent years, mainly due to the decline of the capital growth rate, while upgrading human capital slows the decline. Changes in real growth over the past decade is mainly caused by the change in the potential growth, especially since the 2010 economic growth slowed, mainly due to the decline in the potential growth, it means that in future, policy should focus on supply management instead of demand management, develop potential of future economic growth, ensure the sustainability of economic growth.