我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力的实证分析

基于就业弹性的视角对我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力进行实证分析发现,我国第一产业拉动就业不足,第三产业拉动就业能力较强。再通过比较我国结构偏离系数与国际标准结构偏离系数发现:第一产业存在大量的隐性失业,第二产业吸纳就业能力在减弱,劳动力在向第三产业转移;各行业直接或者间接吸纳就业能力不同,批零餐饮业和社会服务等行业拉动就业作用最强。最后,从消除第一产业隐性失业、发展劳动密集型产业等角度提出了一些解决我国结构性就业矛盾的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis of the Industrial Structure and Economic Growth of China

Based on the perspective of employment elasticity observed,China’s first industry is not strong enough to stimulate employment market while the tertiary industry has much potential driving ability.Through the structural deviation factor,we can see from the structure of the international standard deviation coefficient comparison and find that there is a lot of hidden unemployment in the primary industry.Thus,the second industry will reduce its ability to absorb employment,labor in the shift to the tertiary industry.A variety of employment-based input-output coefficients shows that the industry directly or indirectly contributes to the employment with a different ability to absorb employment,but the wholesale and retail,food industry and social services and other industries have the driving force.Finally,we put some proposals to solve the structural contradiction of employment by eliminating the hidden unemployment of first industry and by developing the labor-intensive industries.