货币反替代及其对中国股市的冲击

货币反替代是指在一国的经济发展过程中，居民在本币坚挺且存在升值趋势下，普遍看好本币的币值或在本币货币资产收益率明显高于外国货币资产收益率时，改变原来对外币的偏好，从而抛售外币资产，持有本币资产，使外币过分集中于中央银行的行为和现象。本文在封“热钱”的内涵进行辨析的基础土，分析货币反替代的目的和渠道，并封1990—2007年货币反替代率进行测度，进而实证检睑货币反替代封中国股市的冲击，研究发现：货币反替代规模较大、流动速度加快、反转性强；货币反替代与国内股票价格正相关，即货币反替代会推动国内股价上涨；当货币反替代出现反转时，则会引起国内股价下跌.

Currency anti-substitution and the impact to Chinese stock market

Currency anti-substitution is a behaviour and phenomenon that in the process of developing economy in a nation, in the case of the local currency is strong and persists the trend of appreciation, residents change their preference for the foreign currencies when the local currency value is heavily favored or the local currency assets is obviously higher than the foreign currency assets, then sell off their foreign currency assets and hold the local currency assets to concentrate the foreign currency in the central bank excessively. Basing on the analysis of the connotation of ＂hot money＂, the issue analyzes the purpose and channel of currency anti-substitution, measures the currency anti-substitution rate from 1990 to 2007, and inspects the impact to Chinese stock market produced by currency anti-substitution. The result of the research shows that currency anti-substitution has a large scale, an accelerating flow, and a strong reverse; currency anti-substitution correlates with the domestic share prices positively, what means currency anti-substitution will drive domestic share prices up; it will result in the downward of domestic share prices when reverse is found in currency anti-substitution.