Explaining the democracy deficit in the Arab world

This paper strongly corroborates the widely held claim about the democracy and freedom “deficit” in the Arab world and asks the natural question as to why has the Arab world experienced such a deficit. The estimation results of an extended “modernity” model of democracy (measured by the Polity IV global index) suggest that after controlling for a host of economic, social and historical variables a negative and highly significant Arab dummy effect remains. This suggests, therefore, that the modernization theory does not fully account for the democracy deficit of the Arab world. Controlling for the modernity and other determinants, oil is negatively associated with democracy while the net effect of regional conflicts in the Arab world was negative, suggesting that conflicts in the Arab world promote authoritarianism in contrast with other regions where regional wars have been associated with democratic transitions. Moreover, and very significantly the Arab dummy was no longer significant as a stand alone effect though it remains significant when interacted with regional wars.