城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析——以陕西省电力消费为例

运用经济计量方法,实证了陕西省城市化与能源消费之间的动态相关性,并利用因素分解模型定量测算出陕西城市化对能源消费变动的贡献份额.结果表明,陕西省城市化与能源消费量之间存在协整关系.但这种长期均衡的短期调整幅度不大;现阶段城市化对陕西能源需求的贡献作用尚比较小.且呈现逐年下降的趋势.因此,能源需求不会成为制约陕西省城市化进程中的瓶颈.

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Development of Urbanization and Growth of Energy Consumption

This paper applies co-integration analysis to test the dynamic correlations between development of urbanization and growth of energy consumption,and calculates the contribution of urbanization to change of energy consumption with the factor decomposition model.The result shows that there exists a long-term relationship between urbanization and energy consumption.However,in the long run,the role of correction is not prominent.In current conditions,the contribution of urbanization to the energy consumption is...