人民币汇率调整与内外失衡的影响机理分析

本文运用协整分析建立误差修正模型,重点分析了我国经济内外均衡与人民币汇率调整机制之间的关系。研究表明:我国经济内外部均衡变量与人民币实际有效汇率之间存在着协整关系,短期内,对人民币实际有效汇率产生影响的主要是贸易顺差、货币供给量和经济增长因素。长期来看,决定长期汇率均衡走势的是实体因素(外汇储备、经济增长和货币供应量)。价格因素(通货膨胀率和利率)在短期内可能对汇率影响较大,但长期内不再重要。

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Adjustment and Determinants about Internal & External Balance

By establishing an error correction model based on co-integration analytical techniques,the paper analyzed the interactions between China’s internal & external balance and RMB exchange rate adjustment.The followings are the results we got from the research:there is co-integration between the variables about internal & external balance and RMB real effective exchange rate(REER).On a shortterm basis,the main factors affecting RMB REER are trade surplus,money supply and economic growth.In the long run,determinants about long-term RMB REER are real economic factors,such as foreign exchange reserves,economic growth and money supply volume.The price factors,such as inflation rate and interest rare may have important effects in a short run.However,in the long run,they are not important affecting factors any more.