现代服务业：上海经济增长的新动力

本文通过经济增长弹性与就业弹性两个指标,对上海"十一五"规划中提出将优先发展的现代服务业及其主要子行业在上海经济增长中的作用进行了研究。分析认为目前上海第二产业与第三产业对经济的拉动力相当。而现代服务业的拉动力大于传统服务业。近年来,现代服务业的就业弹性均值较大,同时弹性的波动变化很大,这是上海GDP就业弹性近几年波动增大的主要原因。同时,通过对现代服务业中主要子行业的分析,发现现代服务业子行业间就业弹性的变动有着高度的正相关,这将增加现代服务业就业弹性波动对于上海GDP就业弹性波动的影响。

Modern Service Sector: the New Engine of Shanghai's Economic Growth

By calculating the economic growth elastic- ity and employment elasticity,in this paper we study on the role of modern service sector as well as its main sub-indus- tries in Shanghai's economic growth.According to our re- search,we hold the view that at present the second industry and service industry has the equal pulling force to Shanghai's economic growth.Besides,the modern service sector has more pulling power than traditional sector.In recent years, the employment elasticity is quite large and has big fluctua- tion as well.These are the major reasons for bigger fluctua- tion in the employment elasticity in Shanghai in recent years. Meanwhile,analysis on the major sub-industries in modern service sector shows that there are high positive correlations among the sub-industries,which can increase the impact of modern services fluctuation on GDP employment elasticity in Shanghai.