矿产资源勘探开发项目现代投资决策方法的比较研究

本文对目前流行的投资决策方法(实期权定价,决策树分析与蒙特卡罗模拟法)从项目投资决策的角度进行了比较分析,指出了其各自的优缺点及适用范围,并对最具前景的期权定价法进行了重点阐述。分析结果显示,尽管各种方法存在某些差异,但事实上可以认为是同一投资决策方法框架下应用的不同形式,在应用实期权模拟项目复杂性时需要适当简化问题。未来的研究应当考虑矿产资源勘探开发项目中技术参数不确定性对项目价值与投资决策的影响。

gomparative analysis of modern degeging- makingmethods for investing minerral resourges exploration && development projegt

, Decision Tree and Monte Carlo Simulations are the most popular methods used for evaluating these projects. In this paper, their similarities and differences are compared from angle of project investment decision-making, and the most promising methods, which is Option Pricing, is set forth in detail. The results show that despite their obvious differences, there are in fact different facets of a general project evaluation framework that has the static base case scenario as its simplest form. Compromises have to be made when modeling the complexity of the real projects. These three approaches can be obtained from the general framework by focusing on certain aspects. In addition, this paper uses several cases to illustrate their applications.