Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas: An analysis of alternative methodologies

Questions raised by J.R. Meyer and J.W. Millimar on the appropriate level of sophistication in regional econometric models are addressed by comparing the modeling methodologies for each of six diverse substate areas. The methodologies range from aggregated recursive structures driven by an ARIMA time-series model of export-base employment to highly detailed simultaneous equation models. It is found that recursive model accuracy is relatively insensitive to forecast accuracy of the model-driving variable and simultaneous models are more accurate than recursive ones, but relative accuracies of aggregated and detailed simultaneous models are less clear. Population and personal income estimates are improved by disaggregation, but with respect to employment, there is a trade-off in model structure between average employment prediction accuracy over a number of time periods and turning point prediction accuracy.