A model for manpower, employment, training and education

The increasing refinement and variety of economic projections can give the educational planner an extremely useful tool, providing he can find a way to convert sectoral projections of employment into educational requirements. In this study occupational data from the Census of 1960 were converted directly into their vocational educational equivalents so that cross-classifications by (SIC) sector permitted the derivation of sectoral employment/education coefficients. These coefficients, multiplied by projected employment in each sector, give projected employment in terms of the vocational preparation which is implied.

Using this approach, vocational preparation requirements were projected to 1975 for the fifty states and 224 metropolitan areas. The results thus generated show the variety which can be anticipated among the various regions in the United States, and can provide guidance to local and state educational groups in setting up programs at state and local levels.

A similar approach which used various national projections led to two conclusions. The level of sectoral detail can have quite important impacts on the “mix” of training requirements which results, suggesting that projections of this type must be based on quite detailed sectoral employment breakdowns. Second, shifts in patterns of growth can have marked impacts on some types of vocational training requirements while needs for other types remain relatively unaffected.