Latent Markov Modelling of Recidivism Data

This article discusses the application of latent Markov modelling for the analysis of recidivism data. We briefly examine the relations of Markov modelling with log–linear analysis, pointing out pertinent differences as well. We show how the restrictive Markov model may be more easily applicable by adding latent variables to the model, in which case the latent Markov model is a dynamic version of the latent class model. As an illustration, we apply latent Markov analysis on an empirical data set of juvenile prosecution careers, showing how the Markov analyses producing well-fitting and interpretable solutions. We end by comparing the possible contributions of Markov modelling in recidivism research, outlining its drawbacks as well. Recommendations and directions for future research conclude the article.