The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16 |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Tourism and Hospitality, TransWorld University, No. 1221, Zhennan Rd., Douliu City, Yunlin County 640, Taiwan;2. Department of Economics, Soochow University, No. 56, Kueiyang Street, Section 1, Taipei 100, Taiwan;1. Patrick E. Molony Professor, Department of Economics, Auburn University, 138 Miller Hall, Auburn, AL 36849, United States;2. Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, United States;1. Research Center of the Central China for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, 330031 Nanchang, PR China;2. School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, 330031 Nanchang, PR China;3. Business School, Hunan University, 410082 Changsha, PR China;1. Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Pakistan;2. Rennes School of Business, Rennes City, Brittany, France;3. Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto, Canada;4. Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea |
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| Abstract: | This paper aims at decteting what drove the adoption of austerity policies over the period 2010–16 in a panel of 28 European countries. Austerity is identified by year increases in the ratio between the structural primary balance and potential GDP. By means of principal component factor analysis we select the aggregate factors that might affect austerity, namely (i) fiscal consolidation (correction of high deficits and debts), (ii) market discipline (high sovereign spreads, low ratings), (iii) rule-based fiscal discipline (compliance with the Eurozone rules), and macroeconomic stabilisation (consideration for the cyclical position of the economy). Then we estimate a dynamic panel model with the system-GMM method. Results show that the most important contributions to austerity are provided by the market discipline and fiscal consolidation factors together with Excessive Deficit Procedures, with no significant role played by concomitant macroeconomic conditions. Overall, governments complied with orthodox fiscal principles and rules. |
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| Keywords: | Austerity Fiscal reaction functions Principal component factor analysis Dynamic panel data analysis |
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