基于泊松分布的需求预测模型设计

研究的目的是运用有效的方法来提高需求预测的准确性，从而优化物料库存控制，以解决当前困扰生产企业的库存管理难题。通过分析物料的消耗规律，运用管理科学的理论与方法建立了基于泊松分布的物料需求模型，利用时间序列法对主要参数进行科学计算。研究的需求预测方法能够较好地解决库存控制中存在的计划问题，具有较强的可操作性，对提高企业库存管理水平具有很好的指导作用。

The Demand Forcast Model and Validation Based on Poisson's Distribution

The purpose of this thesis is to find an effective method to improve the accuracy of demand forecast. Through this method enterprises will optimize their inventory control which is a d~culty in enterprises＂ management. The thesis establishes the demand forecast model based on Poisson＇s distribution through analyzing the material consuming tendency. And it main parameter with the time sequence method. The research can be used to inventory plan to solve the inventory control prob, lem. The method is applicable and meaningful for enterprises to plan their material demand and improve their inventory management.