基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。

An Empirical Analysis of the Interaction between BDI and Fuel Prices Based on the VAR Model

Fuel prices have fluctuated dramatically recently due to the impact of the epidemic, and the international dry bulk shipping market has also been greatly affected. Based on the Clarksons database data from January 1992 to April 2020, the empirical study found that the collapse of international fuel prices had a significant positive impact on the decline of the Baltic Dry freight index. Although fuel price is also affected by BDI to a certain extent, there is a lag. This is helpful for dry bulk transportation companies to forecast the change trend of freight price index according to the fluctuation of fuel price, so as to adopt various ways to cope with the impact. It is also of great significance to ensure the stable development of dry bulk transportation market.