“啤酒游戏”的系统动力学分析

在简要介绍了“啤酒游戏”、系统动力学及其仿真软件Vensim的基础上,进一步构建了啤酒游戏的因果关系图和系统动力学流图,并在此基础上应用Vensim/DYNAMO构建了“啤酒游戏”的计算机模型,对其进行了仿真。研究了订货延迟时间对物流库存系统情况造成的影响,比较了两种不同的采购策略对“啤酒游戏”的影响,发现订货延迟时间的存在是造成“啤酒游戏”中“牛鞭效应”的内因,商家过分在意当前的库存与缺货情况,急于补存或者降低库存,反而会造成“牛鞭效应”的加剧。结果表明,如果商家适当的延长库存的补货时间,“啤酒游戏”中的“牛鞭效应”会有所改观,这是现代供应链上的物流企业应该借鉴的。

The System Dynamics Analyse of "Beer Game"

This article firstly give brief introduction to Beer Game,System Dynamics and Vensim,and then a beer game model was developed with Vensim software,it was simulated with computer.Through this model,the influence of order delay on logistic system inventory was analyzed,the effect of different procurement plans on beer game was researched。It is pointed out that the order delay is the main reason for bullwhip effect in beer game,if sellers pay too much attention to the inventory,the bullwhip effect will be aggravated.If sellers don't do like that,the situation will become better.This conclusion should be important to the enterprise.