进出口贸易对广西经济增长贡献的比较分析

本文通过对广西1978～2009年进出口贸易与经济增长的数据进行统计比较并建立分布滞后和时间序列综合模型回归分析,得出无论是出口贸易还是进口贸易都对经济增长有促进作用,并获得充分的证据支持进口贸易在推动经济增长中的重要性要胜过出口贸易的观点。通过实证研究对广西进出口贸易发展带来一些有益的启示。

Comparation Analysis on the Contribution to Guangxi Economic Growth of Import and Export Trade

This paper compares the relationship between import and export trade and economic growth by using the data from 1978 to 2009,and does regression analysis by establishing a distributed lag and time series integrated model.The conclusion is that not only the export trade but also the import trade can promote economic growth,and obtain sufficient evidence to support the point of view that export trade is more importance than import trade in driving economic growth.This can bring some useful inspiration to Guangxi’s import and export trade by empirical research.