进出口贸易对经济增长贡献的比较分析——基于中国对外贸易的实证研究

长期以来,无论是政界还是在学术界都表现出高度重视出口在经济增长中的作用,但低估甚至忽视进口对经济增长的推动作用的倾向。通过建立分布滞后模型,对我国1978～2006年进出口贸易与经济增长的数据进行回归分析和比较,无法获得充分的证据支持出口贸易在推动经济增长中的重要性要胜过进口贸易的观点,反而得出无论是出口贸易还是进口贸易都对经济增长有促进作用的结论。通过实证研究对我国贸易发展得到一些有益的启示。

Comparing and Analysing the Contribution of I/E Played in Economic Growth——Based on Empirical Research of China

For a long time, it appears that a strong tendency for underestimating or neglecting the role of import played in economic growth process but over-emphasis put on export in both the government decision-making process and academic circles. This thesis argues that there exists no evidence to support the viewpoint that export is much more important than import in economic growth. Through establishing the distribute lagged model, based on analyzing between China's data of import & export and economic growth from 1978 to 2006, the thesis makes conclusion that played equal important role in economic growth. From the empirical research, we gain a good deal of enlightenment for our foreign trading development.