人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响分析

1994年人民币汇率并轨以来,我国对外贸易发展迅速。2005年进出口总值达14224.4亿美元,外贸依存度超过70%,进出口贸易的快速增长有力地促进了国民经济的发展。2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革初步确立了人民币长期升值趋势,人民币兑美元名义汇率至今已升值约3.3%。理论上,人民币升值将影响到我国进出口贸易的健康发展。本文基于克莱因模型,采用1999￣2005年季度数据,建立我国进口、出口的自回归双对数模型,深入分析人民币汇率变动对我国实际进出口的影响,以期为对外贸易政策的制定和宏观调控提供决策依据。

An Analysis of Influence on China's Import-Export Trade of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation

Since the combination of RMB exchange rate in 1994, China's foreign trade has been developing rapidly. The total amount of China's import-export trade went up to 1422.44 billion US dollars in 2005.The proportion of foreign trade in GDP has exceeded 70 percent in China. The rapid growth of foreign trade in China has powerfully promoted the development of the national economy. The reform of RMB exchange rate system established the long-term elementary tendency of RMB appreciation in July 2005. The nominal exchange rate of RMB against USD has already risen by about 3.3 percent so far. Theoretically, the healthy development of China's foreign trade will be influenced by RMB appreciation. Based on Klein model, this paper takes the quarterly data from 1999 to 2005 to establish the autoregressive double-log model concerning about import and export, and then analyze deeply the influence on China's real import-export trade of RMB exchange rate's fluctuation, in the hope of providing the decision basis of the foreign trade policy's formulation and the macroeconomic adjustment and control.