基于熵权灰色组合预测模型的区域能源需求预测研究

本文在充分考虑传统GM(1,1)模型所存在缺陷的基础上,结合灰色预测模型的最新理论成果,提出了基于GM(1,1)模型,新陈代谢模型,离散DGM模型三种灰色预测模型的组合预测模型,采用熵值法来确定组合预测模型中各单项方法的权重,并以湖北省为例,对湖北省2001-2010年能源需求总量进行实证研究,结果表明基于灰色组合预测模型的预测精度明显高于三种单项预测方法的精度,证明了该模型用于区域能源需求预测的科学性和有效性,在此基础上对2011-2015年湖北省能源需求进行了预测。

Regional Energy Demand Forecast Research Based on Entropy Weight Grey Combination Forecasting Model

Taking the defects of the traditional GM(1,1) model into consideration,combined with the latest theoretical achievement of grey prediction model,this paper puts the combined forecast model of the GM(1,1) model,information renewal model,and discrete DGM model,determines the combination forecast model using entropy method.Taking Hubei Province as an example,it makes an empirical research on the total energy demand of Hubei province from 2001 to 2010.The results show that the forecasting accuracy based on the grey combination forecast model is significantly higher than three kinds of single forecast model;it is proved that the model for the regional energy demand forecast is scientific and effective,and forecasts the energy demand of Hubei province from 2011 to 2015.