建设工程项目进度的动态风险分析研究

基于PERT网络模型,以网络活动为基础,对所有活动进行风险因素识别,并考虑其风险因素的时空变化性及其施工性质,对风险因素进行概率分布量化及活动影响权重量化;然后,依据量化结果,进行网络时间参数计算、Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)模拟分析,得到项目完工工期的概率分布;最后,依据项目影响性计算原则,对各风险因素进行动态风险分析,得出各风险因素的影响指数曲线,达到进度动态风险分析的目的。

To Study on Dynamic Risk Analysis of Constructing Project Schedule

Based on PERT network model,all risk factors of network activities have been identified and quantified by considering the time and space changing character of factors and the construction conduction character.Then based on quantifiable results,the completion probability distribution of the project duration has been gained by computing the time parameters for network and conducting the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS).And then according to the calculation principle of the risk factors’ infection,dynamic risk analysis can be conducted for all factors.After dynamic risk analysis,the infected exponential curve of risk factors can be finally confirmed,which achieve the purpose of risk analysis.