人民币汇率对贸易影响的实证分析:一个文献综述

本文从三个角度——研究视角、变量性质、计量模型发展,对当前汇率对贸易差额影响的文献进行梳理,认为下一步的研究,应该将研究的视角选择在不同国家不同地区不同行业上,使用双边变量,在综合考虑其他各种影响贸易的因素,如直接投资、财政补贴等,以结构向量自回归模型为基础,进一步的细分结构性冲击,结合经济理论以及前人的研究结果,综合运用各种约束方法对汇率对贸易影响的问题做进一步的研究。

Empirical Analysis of Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on Trade: a Literature Review

By sorting out the papers which study the current impact of exchange rates on trade balance from three angles-research perspective, the character of variables and the development of econometric model, I believe that in further studies the research perspective should be selected in different areas in different countries in different sectors, using bilateral variables. Under considering some other factors that affect trade such as direct investment, financial subsidies and so on, and based on structural VAR model, subdividing structural shocks further, combining with ecoriomic theory and previous research findings, we should comprehensively make use of various constraints on the exchange rate effects on trade issues for further study.