| 中国地方政府支出与居民消费关系的区域差异研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 洪涛,毛中根.中国地方政府支出与居民消费关系的区域差异研究[J].经济与管理研究,2011(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 洪涛 毛中根 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院;西南财经大学工商管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目“从生产大国到消费大国:促进中国消费需求增长的理论与对策研究”(项目编号08CJL007); 教育部博士点基金“区域产业政策与区域经济协调发展的实现机制研究”(项目编号200802131040); 西南财经大学“211工程”三期青年教师成长项目“政府消费的产出弹性与增长效应研究” |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用分类回归树(CART)方法,根据中国地方政府支出与居民消费关系的差异将中国31个省(市、区)分为两组,分别对两组区域进行面板数据分析。结果表明:政府支出增长对居民消费的影响在第一组区域具有显著的引致效应,而在第二组区域则表现为挤出效应。在第一组,农业支出、政策性补贴和政府消费的增长对居民消费具有较大的正向影响,但只能在当期发挥作用;在第二组,则是基本建设支出和科学技术支出的增长显著促进了居民消费,且显示出较好的持续性。应根据不同的区域特征采取针对性措施,以有效拉动居民消费增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 地方政府支出 居民消费 区域差异 CART方法 |
A Study on Regional Difference of Relationship between Local Government Expenditure and Private Consumption |
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| HONG Tao,MAO Zhong-gen.A Study on Regional Difference of Relationship between Local Government Expenditure and Private Consumption[J].Research on Economics and Management,2011(10). |
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| Authors: | HONG Tao MAO Zhong-gen |
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| Institution: | HONG Tao~1,MAO Zhong-gen~2 (1.School of Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin,150001,2.School of Business Administration,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,610074) |
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| Abstract: | Using a method called CART,the autors split 31 provinces in China up into two groups.The results of panel data analysis show that government expenditure have crowd - in effects in group one and crowd - out effects in group two on private consumption.In the first group,government expenditure on agriculture,fiscal subsidy and government consumption have crowd - in effects on private consumption,but these effects will not last to next year.In the second group, governments expenditure on infrastructure and scie... |
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| Keywords: | Government Expenditure Private Consumption Regional Difference CART |
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