中国银行业绩高增长背后的风险因素分析

本文首先用一个简单的垄断竞争模型分析了各种因素对银行业绩的影响，然后用面板回归分析模 型对具有代表性的14家银行进行了回归分析，揭示了银行利润与各种因素的关系。分析表明，规模扩张和利差是中国银行利润增长决定因素，不良贷款率和存贷比对银行利润有负面作用，但利率、法定准备金率等变量与利润的关系与静态理论的预测相反，表明货币政策操作往往是顺周期的，对货币政策的滞后效应估计不足，需要加强对经济周期规律性研究，提高货币政策的前瞻性。本文还分析了当前经济增长结构性减速、利率市场化给银行带来的可能影响，从道德风险、国内外利差和汇率波动角度分析了银行和宏观经济面临的风险。

A Risk Factor Analysis Behind High Growth of China's Banking Sector Performance

This paper first builds a simple monopolistic competition model and analyzes the impact of various factors on bank's profit with the model, and then it conducts a regressive analysis on 14 representative banks using panel data model of fixed effects. The analysis shows that bank sector profit is mainly determined by expansion of banks' balance sheet and relative high interest margin. The non-performing loan rate and loan-deposit ratio are negatively related to banking sector profit, but positive correlation is identified between banks' profit and required reserve rate as well as interest rate, which is incosistent with the forecast of theoretical model. It shows that China monetary policy is pro-cyclical and lack of forward-looking. Therefore, business cyclical study should be strengthened and forward looking monetary policy is needed. The paper also analyzes the risks that banking sector faces from the angle of structural deceleration of economic growth, interest rate market, moral hazard, the interest rate gap between home and abroad and exchange rate volatility.