| 区域物流发展水平与进出口贸易关系的实证研究——基于河南省1978-2010年数据的协整分析和Granger因果检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 上官绪明.区域物流发展水平与进出口贸易关系的实证研究——基于河南省1978-2010年数据的协整分析和Granger因果检验[J].物流技术,2012(13):253-255. |
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| 作者姓名： | 上官绪明 |
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| 作者单位： | 信阳师范学院经济与管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2011B676);河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2011A790019);信阳师范学院青年骨干教师资助计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 从供给和需求两个视角选取物流业发展水平的评价指标,对河南省物流业发展水平与进出口贸易增长关系进行了计量分析。通过Johansen协整检验得出:河南省物流业的供给和需求水平与进出口贸易之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;通过Granger因果检验得出:河南省物流业需求水平对进出口贸易有显著的影响,而物流业供给水平对进出口贸易影响不显著,物流业总体发展水平与进出口贸易之间未呈现良性互动态势。
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| 关 键 词： | 物流业 进出口贸易 协整分析 Granger因果检验 |
An Empirical Study on Relationship between Regional Logistics Development Level and Export/Import |
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| Institution: | SHANGGUAN Xu-ming(School of Economics & Management,Xinyang Normal College,Xinyang 464000,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,with evaluation index from the perspective of supply and demand,we analyzed quantitatively the relationship between logistics industry development level and growth of export/import trade.Through Johansen co-integration test,we found that the level of supply and demand on the logistics industry in Henan and the export/import trade of the province maintained a long-term co-integrated relationship;through Granger causality test we found that the level of demand of logistics industry of Henan exerted a significant influence upon the export/import trade of the province while the level of supply not significant and there was no evident reciprocal interaction between the overall development level of the logistics industry and export/import trade. |
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| Keywords: | logistics industry export/import trade co-integration analysis Granger causality test |
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