Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model |
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Authors: | Aslan Lotfi Ali Lotfi William E Halal |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Management, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Kish, Iran;2. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran;3. Department of Information Systems and Technology Management, School of Business, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA;4. Institute of Knowledge &5. Innovation-SE Asia, Bangkok University, Thailand |
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Abstract: | The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison. |
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Keywords: | technology diffusion logistic model numerical analysis differential equation |
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