土地财政、城镇化与城乡收入差距--基于1999-2011年省级面板联立方程的实证研究

土地财政和滞后的城镇化是我国城乡收入差距扩大的重要影响因素。构建1999-2011年31个省级面板数据联立方程检验土地财政与城镇化之间相互关系，进而考察二者对全国及区域层面城乡收入差距的影响。研究结果表明：（1）土地财政与城镇化二者存在双向联动关系，且城镇化对土地财政规模的影响大于土地财政对城镇化的作用。（2）土地财政与城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响显著为正，土地财政与城镇化是驱动中国城乡收入差距的重要影响因素。（3）城镇化对城乡收入差距的作用强度存在一定的区域差异，城镇化的推进缩小了西部省份城乡收入差距但不利于东中部省份收入差距的改善。因此，要正确看待土地财政在城镇化建设中的作用，未来应积极探索新型人口城镇化发展模式，改革当前土地制度安排，继续深化分税制改革并完善地方官员绩效考核机制。

Land Finance,Urbanization and Urban-rural Income Gap:An Estimation Based on Provincial Panel Data Simultaneous Equations Model during 1999-2011

Land finance and lagged urbanization play a crucial role on urban-rural income gap in Chi-na. In this paper,we construct 1999 - 2011 panel data of 31 provinces and test the relationship between land finance and urbanization,then further study their effects on urban-rural income gap in national and regional level. The results show that：（1）There is a two -way correlation between land finance and urbanization which promotes each other. And the role of urbanization to the land finance is greater than the land finance to urbanization. （2）The effects of land finance and urbanization on urban -rural income gap is significantly positive,which are the important influencing factors on urban-rural income gap.（3）Urbanization has a sig-nificantly influence on urban-rural income gap differs from region. And urbanization is not beneficial for nar-rowing urban-rural income gap in east and middle area but west area. The conclusion as follow：We should appraise the role of urbanization to the land finance properly;promote a new model of population urbanization in the future;reform the current land administration system;deepen the reform of the tax system and improve the performance appraisal mechanism of local officials.