港口收益与港口吞吐量的关系研究

以往的港口研究把更多的视角放在港口吞吐量与国民经济的关系上，却忽视了吞吐量的真正完成者即港口运营者的表现。在国家倡导高质量发展背景下，本文以中国 12个沿海港口为对象，定量分析了港口收益与港口吞吐量的关系，试图揭示吞吐量增长对港口收益增长的作用大小。研究发现：（1）无论港口营业收入还是营业利润，都与港口吞吐量 （货物、集装箱）具有高度的相关性，但从港口收益吞吐量弹性看，港口利润吞吐量弹性好于港口收入吞吐量弹性，且集装箱吞吐量增长对港口盈利作用更显著；（2）各港口收益 （特别是利润）吞吐量弹性多样化的表现说明，港口收益还受其投资或规模扩张制约，而不单单决定于其吞吐量的大小；（3）在沿海港口激烈竞争环境下， “以量取胜”的传统港口增长路径面临着中美贸易战走势不确定、中国经济转型、世界经济增长乏力等宏观因素的制约，香港、深圳等港口发展的战略转向为中国其他港口转型发展提供了参考。

Study on the Relationship between Port Revenue and Port Throughput

Previous port studies have focused more on the relationship between port throughput and national economy, but ignored the performance of the real fulfillers, who are the port operators. Againstthe background of high -quality development advocated by the state, the paper takes 12 coastal ports in China as the object of study, quantitatively analyses the relationship between port revenue and port throughput, and tries to reveal the effect of throughput growth on the port revenue growth. The results show that: (1) Whether port operating income or operating profit are highly correlated with the port throughput (cargo and container), from the perspective of port revenue-throughput elasticity, the port profit throughput elasticity is better than the port income throughput elasticity, and the container throughput growth has a more significant impact on the port profitability; (2) The diversification of port revenue -throughput elasticity (especially profit) shows that port revenue is also constrained by its investment or expansion of scale, not justby its throughput alone.(3) In the fierce competitive environment of coastal ports, the traditional port growth path of "winning by quantity" is facing the constraints such as theuncertain trend of Sino -US trade war, China''s economic transformation and weak world economic growth, etc. The strategic shift of port development in Hong Kong and Shenzhen provides reference for the transformation and development of other ports in China.