区域产业投资策略与区域产业结构趋同：锦标赛机制的视角

通过对地方官员晋升锦标赛进行建模，分析了各地区产业结构趋同的深层次原因。以经济绩效为主要标准的地方官员晋升选拔机制，直接影响各个互为竞争地区的地方官员的产业投资策略选择，进而导致区域产业结构趋同。模型结果显示，当两地区初始绩效无差异时，产业结构必然趋同。当初始绩效存在差异时，以两地区高利润产业绩效之间相关系数的临界值1/2为分界点：小于等于1/2时，区域产业结构必然趋同；大于1/2时，产业结构是否趋同则受初始绩效差异、高利润产业期望绩效与落后区域比较优势产业绩效差值以及两区域选择高利润产业的绩效相关系数三者间关系的影响。该相关系数可能代表着两区域所投资的同一产业内不同产品间的替代或互补关系。不能仅因产业投资方向上的趋同就认为产业结构存在严重趋同，还需要对产品结构是否趋同进行分析研判。

The Convergence of Regional Industrial Structure:A Perspective of Tournament Mechanism

A model of the impact of political promotion tournament system to industry investment between regional governments is built,and the underlying reason of the convergence of regional industrial structure in China is studied. It is found that the essential reason is the result of the competitors＇ choice of the industrial in-vestment strategies,which depends on the promotion tournament system. Specifically,when the original per-formance of the two regions is different,it will be sure to the convergence of regional industrial structure;when it isn＇t ,it depends on the correlation between the performances of the two regions both chosen the high profit industry to develop. The correlation is equal or less than 1/2,it must be the convergence of regional industrial structure;the correlation is greater than 1/2 ,the convergence depends on the relationship among the differ-ence between the original performance,the performance difference between high profit industry and backward region＇s relative advantaged industry,and the correlation mentioned above. Further,this correlation may imply the complementation or substitution of the different products in the same industry. It is suggested that the prod-uct structure within the same industry,rather than the same industry choice,should be examined in detail to i-dentify the convergence of regional industrial structure.