金融发展、FDI与中国制造业出口绩效——基于新新贸易理论的实证分析

本文以新近发展的新新贸易理论为基础,将中国80余万条制造业出口数据归类到我国国民经济分类制造业,分别使用Probit模型和Heckman选择模型检验了金融发展和FDI对中国制造业出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,融资约束是影响企业出口决策的重要因素,而金融发展有助于企业缓解融资约束,使其能够在最优状态下生产,不仅有利其进入出口市场,还扩大了其出口份额,从而对贸易的扩展边际和集约边际都有积极的影响。此外,FDI缓解了我国出口企业面临的信贷约束,促进融资依赖性行业出口的二元边际,一定程度上发挥了与金融发展同样的作用,进一步的估计表明,FDI是通过替代银行信贷而发挥作用的。

Financial Development,FDI and Manufacturing Export Performance of China:Empirical Analysis Based on New New Trade Theory

Base on new new trade theory,this paper classified 80 million pieces of Chinese manufacturing export datas into the national economy industry classification.Then we use Probit model and Heckman selection model to test the dual margin impact of finance and FDI.Study shows that credit constraints is an important factor of export decisions,and financial development helps companies ease financing constraints,maked them producting in the best state,enabling them to enter the export market,expanding the share of exports,have a positive impact on the intensive margin and extensive margin.Meanwhile,FDI also ease the credit constraints of China’s export enterprises and promote exports of dual marginal of high-finance-dependent sectors,play the same role of financial development.Further estimates suggest that FDI functions through substitution of bank credit.