国际贸易对我国CO2排放增长的影响——基于SDA与LMDI结合的分解法

本文采用结构分解法与对数平均迪氏指数相结合的新分解方法,将我国CO2排放的增长分解为能源效率效应、能源替代效应、技术效应、国内最终需求效应、出口效应、进口效应6项,并重点考察了出口效应、进口效应以及两者的综合效应。结果表明,1992-2005年期间,我国CO2排放呈现出加速增长的趋势,主要是由国内需求所推动,而非国际贸易效应。出口起到了较大的增排效应,而进口具有显著的减排效应,两者相抵后的综合效应较小,但2002年以后国际贸易对CO2排放增长的影响开始显著增强。其他因素对CO2排放增长的影响表现为:能源效率的提高具有显著的减排效应,而能源替代从减排效应转为增排效应,技术效应具有持续增强的增排效应。

The Effect of International Trade on CO2 Emissions Growth in China:Based on a Method Combined SDA with LMDI

The paper presents a new method that combines structural decomposition method with the logarithmic mean Divisia index method to decompose the growth of China’s CO2 emissions into 6 kinds of effects,which are energy efficiency effect,energy substitution effect,technology effect,domestic final demand effect,export effect and import effect.The export effect,import effect and combined effect of them are mainly analyzed.The result shows that:the CO2 emissions in China endure a trend of accelerated growth in the studying period,which is mainly driven by the expansion of domestic demand,rather than the trade factors.The export trade increases CO2 emissions to a large extent,but with the significant reduction of CO2 emissions caused by import effect,the trade only leads to a little increasing of CO2 emissions.However,after 2002,the effect of international trade on the growth of CO2 starts to increase.In addition,the improvement of energy efficiency significantly reduces the CO2 emissions,but the effect of energy substitution is shifted to increase CO2 emissions from reducing CO2 emissions,and technology effect continues to increase CO2 emissions.