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Assimilation of Time Series Data into a Dynamic Bioeconomic Fisheries Model: An Application to the North East Arctic Cod Stock
Authors:Email author" target="_blank">Al-Amin?M?UssifEmail author  Leif?K?Sandal  Stein?I?Steinshamn
Institution:(1) Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, 6th Floor Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway;(2) Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen, Norway;(3) Institute for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen, Norway
Abstract:This paper combines the elegant technique of Data Assimilation and a Monte Carlo procedure to analyze time series data for the North East Arctic Cod stock (NEACs). A simple nonlinear dynamic resource model is calibrated to time series data using the variational adjoint parameter estimation method and the Monte Carlo technique. By exploring the efficient features of the variational adjoint technique coupled with the Monte Carlo method, optimal or best parameter estimates with their error statistics are obtained. Thereafter, the weak constraint formulation resulting in a stochastic ordinary differential equation (SODE) is used to find an improved estimate of the dynamical variable, i.e. the stock. Empirical results show that the average fishing mortality imposed on the NEACs is about 16% more than the intrinsic growth rate of the biological species.
Keywords:dynamic resource model  Inverse methods  Monte Carlo  variational adjoint parameter estimation  weak constraint
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