安徽省能源消耗与经济增长的关联性研究

本文将能源消耗作为经济增长的影响因子引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,采用1978—2008年安徽省的时间序列数据,通过建立VAR模型和误差修正模型,运用JJ协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,证明了安徽省能源消耗与经济增长间存在长期均衡关系和单向因果关系,并估计出能源消费、就业人数和固定资本存量对安徽省经济增长的贡献率。结果显示,能源消耗对安徽省经济的影响较为显著。此外,利用脉冲响应和方差分解方法分析得出,保持能源消耗、固定资本存量与就业人数的协调增长对于安徽省经济增长有积极意义。

Analysis on Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Anhui Province

This paper introduces the energy consumption as a factor influencing economic growth into the Cobb-Douglas production model.Using the time series data about Anhui province,and establishing VAR model and ECM,it testifies the long-term equilibrium relationship and uni-directional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Anhui through Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and Granger causality test,and estimates the contribution rate of energy consumption,employment and social fixed capital stock to the ecomonic growth in Anhui.The result shows that the impact of energy consumption on Anhui＇s economy is obvious.And the result based on the impulse response function and the variance decomposition indicates that it is keeping the growth rates of energy consumption,social fixed capital stock and employee have positive significance for Anhui＇s economic growth.