绿色工艺创新扩散波动对经济增长的冲击

本文构建了一个两部门DSGE模型,同时考虑了创新扩散的一般规律(“S型扩散”)与企业绿色技术创新扩散的独特作用(节能作用和减排作用)。基于人口老龄化的预测,模拟随着企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动,经济系统所做出的响应。结果表明：经济变量对于企业绿色技术创新扩散的波动呈现出不同的响应路径,其中资本存量的响应具有滞后性;资本报酬率为首的相关经济变量对于正向冲击的响应出现了“翘尾效应”。最后,本文给出了稳定、正向引导市场预期和在资本市场采取预调机制的政策建议。

The influence of "s-shaped diffusion" of enterprise green technology innovation on economic growth

This paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model, and considers the general law of innovation diffusion (" s-type diffusion ") and the unique role of enterprise green technology innovation diffusion (energy saving and emission reduction). Based on the prediction of population aging, the response of fluctuating economic system with the diffusion of enterprise green technology innovation is simulated. The results show that economic variables have different response paths to the fluctuations of the diffusion of green technology innovation, and the response of capital stock is hysteresis. The "carry-over effect" appears in the response of relevant economic variables headed by the rate of return on capital to positive shocks. Finally, this paper argues that the government should take measures to stabilize the expectations of market participants and adopt the pre-adjustment mechanism in the capital market.