低碳约束下中国全要素生产率的时空演变——基于Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数分解方法

在全要素框架下运用基于连续前沿的Malmquist-Luenberger生产率增长指数方法,估算了1987—2009年中国28个省(自治区、直辖市)的低碳全要素生产率、技术进步和效率改善,对中国低碳全要素生产率的总体发展、区域差异进行实证分析。然后,利用核密度估计,对累积相对低碳全要素生产率增长、累积相对技术进步和累积相对效率改善做分布动态演进分析。结果表明:考察期内中国整体的低碳全要素生产率趋于上升,但上升幅度逐渐减小;东、中、西三大区域的低碳全要素生产率存在显著差异,呈东高西低的增长格局;东、中部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升是技术进步和效率改善共同推进的结果;西部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升仅靠技术进步驱动,效率改善存在退步迹象;省际间的低碳全要素生产率呈一定程度的"俱乐部收敛"特征,技术进步有明显的"追赶效应"。

Space-time Evolution of Total Factor Productivity under Low-Carbon Constraint in China : Based on Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger Productivity Index Method

This paper calculates the growth of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint,technical progress and efficiency change of carbon dioxide emissions of 28provinces in the period of 1987-2009by the sequential Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index method,and analyzes the dynamic change of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint in whole China and the regional difference among eastern,central and western regions.Then it investigates the dynamics of whole distribution of cumulative relative total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint,cumulative relative technical progress and cumulative relative efficiency change by the Kernel density estimation.The empirical results show as follows : total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint has been improved in whole China while the growth is decreasing year by year;there are significant differences in total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint among three regions,and the pattern is characterized by the high growth of eastern region and the low growth of western region,the improvement of total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint in eastern and central regions is the result of technical progress and efficiency change working together;that in western region only relies on technical progress,and efficiency change exists degradation sign;total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint takes on a certain degree of " convergence club " features,and technical progress has obvious " catching-up " effect in China.