我国农村居民粮食直接消费预测研究

对我国农村居民粮食直接消费的历史特征和随收入变动的阶段性作了模型描述,利用筛选出的有效模型对人均粮食需求量进行了长期预测。结合我国人口自然增长率和未来城镇化的变化因素,论文也得到了我国农村居民粮食直接消费的长期预测总量。本文的结论是,随着生活水平的提高和食物结构的丰富,农民人均粮食直接需求量会不断下降,至2015年前后达到稳定,农村人口的不断减少也会导致农村粮食需求总量减少。

A Forecast Research on Grain Consumption of Rural Chinese Household

Based on the analysis of the time series dada about grain direct consumption of Chinese rural household during 1978 - 2004. the paper summarises the main character of each stage and describes it with model. We predict the grain direct consumption quantity per capita with the selected forecast model and calculate the whole demand considering on the popuhtion change and civilization movement in the future, The conclusion is that the direct grain consumption is becoming less and less and will be stable at 2015. from that on the whole quantity will go down ton.