生产性服务业、制造业与经济增长的动态关系——基于中美两国数据的实证分析

选取1978—2013年中国的年度数据、1960—2015年美国的年度数据,运用向量自回归模型对中美两国的生产性服务业、制造业与经济增长的动态关系进行模拟和分析。研究结果表明:美国生产性服务业的发展对制造业发展和经济增长的短期效应比中国要强,且作用时间更快;中国的经济增长对生产性服务业发展的短期效应强于美国,且减弱速度更为缓慢;生产性服务业和制造业自身的发展是影响制造业发展的最主要因素;生产性服务业的发展是影响其自身发展和经济增长的最主要因素。

Dynamic Linkage among Producer Services,Manufacturing Industry and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on Data of U.S. and China

This paper uses the time-series data of China during the period of 1978-2013 and the data of in U.S. during the period of 1960-2015,to simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship among producer services,manufacturing industry and economic growth in two countries by vector autoregressive model.The results show as follows:compared with China,the short-term effect of producer services on manufacturing industry and economic growth in U.S. is stronger and faster;the short-term effect of economic growth on producer services in China is more significant and decreases more slowly than U.S.;the development of manufacturing industry is mainly derived from producer services and manufacturing industry;the development of producer services and economic growth are rooted in the changes of producer services.