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基于CiteSpace的技术预测研究的可视化分析
引用本文:王翠波,熊坤,刘文俊.基于CiteSpace的技术预测研究的可视化分析[J].技术经济,2020,39(6):147-154.
作者姓名:王翠波  熊坤  刘文俊
作者单位:中南民族大学 管理学院,武汉430074;中南民族大学 管理学院,武汉430074;中南民族大学 管理学院,武汉430074
摘    要:基于科学知识图谱软件CiteSpace,对从中国知网(CNKI)数据库中获取的技术预测科学文献,从文献维度、内容维度等角度进行可视化共现及聚类分析,探索技术预测研究现状及发展趋势。相关分析表明:①技术预测合作研究主要限于学科领域内部;②技术预测研究方法主要包括TRIZ理论、文献计量、文本挖掘和知识图谱等,呈现出从定性向定量、从数字化向知识化发展的特征;③技术预测研究方向主要包括新兴技术主题识别、技术机会识别、颠覆性技术预测、技术态势探索等,呈现出深化实证应用的发展趋势。

关 键 词:技术预测  科学知识图谱  CiteSpace  可视化分析
收稿时间:2020/1/21 0:00:00
修稿时间:2020/6/14 0:00:00

Visual Analysis about the Research of Technology Forecasting Based on CiteSpace
wangcuibo,xiongkun and liuwenjun.Visual Analysis about the Research of Technology Forecasting Based on CiteSpace[J].Technology Economics,2020,39(6):147-154.
Authors:wangcuibo  xiongkun and liuwenjun
Institution:School of Management, South-Central University for Nationalities,School of Management, South-Central University for Nationalities,School of Management, South-Central University for Nationalities
Abstract:This paper aims to explore the status quo and trends of Technology Forecasting (TF) research. Literatures about TF are extracted from CNKI and imported into CiteSpace. Based on CiteSpace, the scientific knowledge map software, the paper carries out visual co-occurrence and cluster analysis from the perspectives of document dimensions and content dimensions. The analysis shows that: (i) cooperative researches in TF are almost limited to the same discipline; (ii) research method about TF mainly includes TRIZ theory, Bibliometrics, text mining and knowledge map, and reflects the development characteristics from qualitative to quantitative and then from digital to knowledge; (iii) research direction of TF mainly includes topic identification of emerging technology, technology opportunity discovery, disruptive technology forecasting and situation exploration, and reflects the development trend of deepening empirical application.
Keywords:technology forecasting  scientific knowledge map  CiteSpace  visual analysis
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