中国碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文选取1978—2006年中国碳排放总量和经济总量的时间序列数据,从碳排放与经济增长的相关关系出发,通过相关系数分析、回归分析及其检验和因果关系阐述,研究中国碳排放与经济增长的演替轨迹,并建立碳排放与经济增长的计量模型。研究结果表明:在目前状况下,中国经济增长是碳排放增长的推动原因,随着中国经济的增长,二氧化碳排放量也呈逐渐增多的趋势,但单位GDP碳排放逐渐降低,即碳排放增长率明显低于经济增长率。

Empirical Study on Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Economy Growth in China

This paper uses the time series data about the total quantity of China＇s carbon emission and GDP from 1978 to 2006,and studies the relationship between the growth in carbon emission and the GDP growth in China.Through correlation analysis,regression analysis as well as test,and causality research,it establishes the econometric model about carbon emission and economy growth.The result shows that the growth of economy causes the growth of carbon emission.With the economic growth of China,the carbon emission also increases gradually,but the carbon emission of unit GDP reduces gradually,namely the growth rate of carbon emission is much lower than that of GDP.