安徽省经济增长驱动因素的实证研究

根据2000—2009年安徽省的经济发展情况,在格兰杰因果关系检验的基础上,进一步运用最小二乘法,对安徽省经济增长的主要驱动因素进行实证分析。研究结果显示:安徽省经济具有明显的内需主导型特征及发展趋势,驱动其经济增长的最主要因素是居民消费和投资,而政府消费和净出口对其经济增长的作用并不显著。最后提出政府应大力增强居民的消费信心、构建完善的投资风险管理体系、合理控制进出口,以确保安徽省经济健康快速发展。

Empirical Research on Factors Driving Economic Growth of Anhui Province

According to the situation of economic development in Anhui province during 2000-2009,and on the basis of Granger causality test,this paper empirically studies the factors driving the economic growth of Anhui province by the OLS method.The results show that Anhui’s economic development is characterized by demand-oriented economy,and the main factors driving economic growth of Anhui are resident’s consumption and investment,and government’s consumption and net export have little effect on Anhui’s economic growth.Finally,it proposes that government should enhance residents’ consumption confidence,and constructs perfect investment risk management system,and control import and export reasonably to ensure Anhui’s economy to develop fastly and healthfully.