技术创新、劳动力就业与产业模式选择:假说、框架和检验

从技术和劳动力的替代关系假说出发,探讨中国产业发展过程中技术创新、劳动力就业和产业模式之间的内在联系。研究发现:随着劳动效率的提升,三次产业内部确实存在技术替代劳动力的情况;但从整体和长期来看,技术创新虽然推动了产业结构调整和经济增长,但对劳动力就业总量的影响不显著;只有当大规模技术变革引起产业发生结构性变动时,技术替代劳动力所带来的失业现象才会出现。得出结论:就业在相当大的程度上表现为宏观经济增长的结果,与技术创新的关系并不明朗。

Technological Innovation, Empolyment and Industrial Mode： Hypothesis, Framework and Positive Analysis

This paper probes into the interrelationship among technology,employment and industrial model in China based on the hypothesis of substitutional relationship between technology and employment.The finding are as follows:there factually exists the substitutional relationship between technology and employment inside each of three industries along with the rising of labor efficiency;however,taking a long view or viewing the situation as a whole,technological innovation has few impacts on the growth of total employment though it is the motive power for industrial structure adjustment and economic growth;only if technology change with large scale drives the change of industrial structure,the unemployment which results from the substitutional relationship between technology and employment would happen.Finally,it draws a conclusion that employment growth is a result of economic growth,and technological innovation and employment are not strongly tied together.