中国对外直接投资与逆向技术外溢的关系——基于熵和耗散结构理论

基于一国技术进步是耗散结构的假设,构建了我国对外直接投资与国内技术进步之间的灰关联熵模型,并运用2003—2010年的数据实证检验了逆向技术外溢效应的存在性。结果表明:2003—2008年期间,我国对外直接投资对国内技术进步并没有持续、显著的作用,此期间并不存在逆向技术外溢;2009年和2010年我国的对外直接投资给国内技术进步带来了负熵流,此期间存在逆向技术外溢,并且它推动了国内技术向良性方向发展。该结果意味着,对外直接投资是一把"双刃剑",有可能增加我国技术进步的熵值,也可能导致负熵流入、促进我国的技术进步。最后提出,我国企业不能盲目进行对外直接投资,应质量和数量并重,以使对外直接投资为我国带来持续的负熵流。

Relationship between Outward Direct Investment and Reverse Technology Spillover： Based on Entropy and Dissipative Structure Theory

On the assumption that technology progress in a country is a dissipative structure,this paper sets up a grey relation entropy model between outward direct investment and technology progress of home country,and empirically analyzes the effect of reverse technology spillover through using the data of China during 2003-2010.The result shows as follows:during 2003-2008,the relationship between outward direct investment and technology progress is not significant,which is not able to prove the existence of reverse technology spillover effect;while outward direct investment in 2009 and 2010 continually encourage technology development,which shows reverse technology spillover effect.This result implies that outward direct investment is a two-side sword,namely,outward direct investment may make the entropy of China’s technology progress increased,and may result in negative entropy flow.Therefore,China’s enterprises should not invest oversea blindly,but pay attention to both quality and quantity,and continuously promote domestic technology progress.