政府R D补贴、技术创新与中国工业转型升级——基于门槛效应的研究

利用2005—2016年省级面板数据实证分析了政府R&D补贴与技术创新、政府R&D补贴、技术创新与中国工业转型升级的关系。结果发现:政府R&D补贴对技术创新的影响存在着基于政府R&D补贴强度的双重门槛效应,其影响作用随着政府RD补贴强度的增加而减少;政府R&D补贴通过技术创新对工业转型升产生正向影响,政府R&D补贴对工业转型升级的间接影响存在着基于政府R&D补贴强度的双重门槛效应,其影响大小呈现先上升后下降的趋势。基于此,地方政府应当确定合适的政府补助强度,使政府R&D补贴强度位于合理区间内,以最大限度发挥政府R&D补贴的激励作用。

Fiscal R&D Subsidies,Technological Innovation and Industrial Transformation and Upgrade:A Study Based on the Threshold Effect

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016, the paper uses the panel threshold model to empirically analyze the impact of fiscal R D subsidies on the technological innovation and industrial transformation and upgrading. The result shows that: the impact of fiscal R D subsidies on technological innovation has a double threshold effect based on the intensity of fiscal R D subsidies, and its impact decreases as the intensity of government RD subsidies increases. Fiscal R D subsidies have a positive impact on industrial transformation and upgrading through technological innovation. The indirect impact of fiscal R D subsidies on industrial transformation and upgrading has a double threshold effect based on the strength of fiscal R D subsidies. The magnitude of their impacts increases first and then decreases. Therefore, local governments should make sure that the intensity of fiscal R D subsidies is within a reasonable range in order to maximize the incentive role of fiscal R D.