中国货币化率与经济增长

近年来,中国高货币化率问题愈发严重,学者们专注于寻找其背后的原因,却忽略了对货币化率与经济增长关系的研究.为此,在对货币化率影响经济增长相关理论进行总结归纳基础上,提出货币化率与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系的理论假设,并且选择全球72个主要国家1996—2018年面板数据,对货币化率与经济增长之间关系进行实证检验.结果表明:在全样本和发达国家子样本中,货币化率与经济增长之间呈现倒U型关系,目前我国货币化率水平小于全样本数据拐点值,大于发达国家子样本数据拐点值.发展中国家子样本数据则显示,货币化率与经济增长呈现正U型关系,适当提高货币化率可以促进经济增长.最后,根据上述结论,提出中国货币化率最优路径图.

Monetization Rate and Economic Growth in China:Empirical Evidence from 72 Countries around the World

in recent years, the problem of China"s high monetization rate has become more and more serious. Scholars focus on finding the reasons behind it, but ignore the research on the relationship between the monetization rate and economic growth, how the monetization rate affects economic growth, and in what range the monetization rate is the most favorable for economic growth. Therefore, on the basis of summarizing the relevant theories about the influence of monetization rate on economic growth, this paper puts forward the theoretical hypothesis that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between monetization rate and economic growth. And select the panel data of 72 representative countries in the world from 1996 to 2018 to conduct an empirical test on the relationship between monetization rate and economic growth. The results show that: the full sample and the sub-sample data of developed countries show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between monetization rate and economic growth. At present, the level of monetization rate in China is less than the inflection point of the whole sample data and greater than the inflection point of the developed countries" sub sample data Point value. The sub sample data of developing countries show that there is a positive U-shaped relationship between the monetization rate and economic growth, and all of them are on the right side of the inflection point. Finally, according to the above conclusions, the optimal path map of China"s monetization rate is proposed.