北京碳排放与经济增长间关系的实证研究——基于EKC和STIRPAT模型

利用1981—2010年北京经济增长和碳排放的数据,验证了两者间EKC的存在性。运用碳生率和脱钩指数分析了经济增长与碳排放的短期静态关系和长期动态关系,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了北京碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:北京经济增长与碳排放之间存在倒U型关系,拐点为人均GDP为34423元;研究期间北京碳生产率呈不断上升趋势,年均增长率为6.1%;在1981—2010年期间的绝大部分年份,北京处于弱脱钩状态,脱钩指数与其经济发展阶段比较吻合;经济发展水平对北京碳排放的影响最显著,其次是能源利用效率,能源消费结构的影响较小。

Empirical Study on Relationship between Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Beijing:Based on EKC and STIRPAT Model

Using the data about economic growth and carbon emission in Beijing from 1981 to 2010, this paper verifies the existence of environ mental Kuznets curve. Then it analyzes the static relationship in shortterm and the dynamic relationship in longterm between economic growth and carbon emission by using carbon productivity and decoupling index,and uses the STIRPAT model to analyze the influencing factors of car bon emission. The result shows as follows：the curve of relationship between economic growth and carbon emission takes on inverted Utype,and the turning point is at per capital GDP of 34423 RMB; Beijing＇s carbon productivity has a rising trend, with an average annual growth rate of 6. 1% ;Beijing is at the weak decoupling state in most years during 1981-2010, which indicates that deeoupling.index is coincided with economic development stage of Beijing;the effect of economic development level of Beijing on carbon emission is the most significant, followed by energy efficiency,and energy consumption structure has a little influence on it.