新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其特征研究

将技术预见的方法和思想运用于新兴技术产业化潜力评价与新兴技术选择中,建立了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系。通过德尔菲问卷调查对28个奥运洁净能源专项项目技术的产业化潜力进行了实证研究,并根据新兴技术产业化潜力的大小将待评价技术分为两组,通过配对样本t检验对导致产业化潜力差异的新兴技术的技术特征、市场特征以及其他特征进行识别和研究,找出影响新兴技术产业化潜力的决定因素。结果表明:新兴技术的技术特征包括形成技术标准和成为主导技术两个子特征;市场特征和符合性特征是决定新兴技术产业化潜力的重要因素。在评价和选择新兴技术时,既要考虑新兴技术产业化潜力的综合评价结果,又要考虑影响新兴技术产业化潜力的重要特征,这样才能保证决策的科学性和准确性。

Study on Evaluation of Industrilization Potential and Characteristic of Emerging Technology

This paper sets up the indicator system of evaluating the industrilization potential of emerging technology by introducing the method and idea of technology foresight.And it evaluates the industrilization potentials of 28 emerging technologies in the field of clean energy industry by the Delph method,and divides them into two groups according to their industrilization potential values.And it identifies and studies the characteristics on technology,maketing and so on of emerging technologies through T test for paired samples in order to obtain determinants affecting the industrilization potential of emerging technology.The results show that becoming technology standard and dominant technology are two technology characteristics,and marketing factor and conformity factor are the most important ones affecting the industrilization potential of emerging technology.Therefore,both the ranking of industrilization potential of emerging technology and the decisive characteristics should be considered for decision-making in emerging technology industrilization.